* Sales SEK 60m (+9% vs. ABGSCe), first EBIT-positive quarter
* We continue to forecast full-year profitability from '27e
* Recycling +76% y-o-y, '26 doubling ambition intact
Q2 results
Nexam reported record quarterly sales of SEK 60m (+11% y-o-y, +9% vs. ABGSCe), after a weaker Q1. Recycling was again the highlight at SEK 10.2m (+76% y-o-y), passing SEK 10m in a quarter for the first time, while Performance Chemicals rose 16% and Masterbatch 7%. Lightweighting improved vs. a weak Q1, although management notes quarterly fluctuations remain, and High Temperature is still held back by NA destocking. EBIT came in positive at SEK 0.1m (ABGSCe -1.8m). The profitability came from operating leverage: +11% sales growth on a broadly flat cost base.
Estimate changes
We only partially extrapolate the strong Q2 into the rest of '26e, as quarterly sales remain volatile and management flags Q3 as the seasonally weaker holiday quarter. We raise '26e-'28e sales by 1-2% and total EBIT by SEK 3m after the report, and continue to expect Nexam to reach positive full-year EBIT in '27e.
Recycling becoming an earnings driver
At ~17% of sales and growing 76%, Recycling is transitioning from option value to earnings driver, supported by the virgin-price surge (PET/PE +40% in June per management) that shifts recycling from sustainability choice to cost necessity, consistent with the thesis in our Q1 note. The concentration point cuts both ways: growth so far is driven by a few large accounts ramping up, and the pipeline's conversion to serial production is the key swing factor for the doubling ambition in 2026. The share has returned +39% L3M (vs. peers +5%, OMXSALLS +3%) and is trading at 1.7x-1.3x '26e-'28e EV/Sales vs. the peer median of 1.3x-0.7x.