* Defence drives 53% growth and a 36% EBITDA margin
* ‘27e: 25% growth, EBITDA margin rising to 30%
* Stronger balance sheet; civilian growth is next
A quarter to show how the model can scale
Sales grew 53% to SEK 77m, driven by defence, which tripled to SEK 40m from last year, mostly from the Norwegian NDMA contract and more CV90 deliveries. The gross margin was 89% (80% last year), on a favourable mix. However, we do not see this as a new level, given the unusually high share of software. Order intake is fairly lumpy each quarter but increased by 66% to SEK 57m (34m last year), helped by its largest civilian deal. Opex fell to 65% of sales, demonstrating the scalability of the business model. Adj. EBITDA was SEK 28m, showing ~110% y-o-y growth and a margin of 36%. ARR grew by 2%, but the decline came from a few small telecom contracts in a non-core segment, while firewall ARR grew. We think growth will pick up as the German SMB market recovers and energy customers grow into next year.
Defence and pricing support '27e
We make minor changes to our estimates. For ‘27e we estimate 25% sales growth. Defence remains the main driver, while the civilian business should improve. ARR should also pick up, as the new prices in the largest civilian deal start in January, adding a few percentage points. As more CV90 hardware is delivered, we expect the gross margin to move towards 80%. Even so, higher volumes and a stable cost base should lift the adj. EBITDA margin to 30% in ‘27e.Stronger balance sheet
Clavister is trading at 13/11x EV/adj. EBITDA for ‘27e/‘28e. ND was ~SEK 120m, but the SEK 65m payment in October should lower it in Q4, and the COVID tax debt has now been replaced by the extended five-year bank loan (announced in Q2). Future NDMA payments will be held as security until 2029, so cash flow now relies on improved profitability. With defence delivering, the next leg is civilian, where a growing pipeline of larger deals should lift growth.